Hazard mitigation planning can substantially minimize the impact of natural disasters. Identifying the risks and vulnerabilities begins at the local level but can often be fragmented. Compartmentalization, separate funding streams, differing mandates, and low priority classification can make identifying and planning for hazards a challenge for urban planners. Communities are more likely to develop independent plans rather than a holistic plan that incorporates comprehensive solutions. It is vital for communities to examine hazard risk alongside urban development scenarios to seamlessly incorporate disaster resilience strategies into planning and development processes.
In a new study for the Natural Hazards Review, “Incorporating Flood Loss Estimation into Urban Planning and Development Scenarios,” author Thomas W. Hilde explores pairing an open-source scenario planning tool with FEMA’s flood loss estimation software to more effectively incorporate disaster resilience into city and community planning. Using a flood-prone suburban development site in Austin, Texas, as a case study, this research demonstrates how comprehensive city planning can incorporate risk-oriented hazard scenarios to proactively prepare for plausible future disasters. Learn more about this road map and how it can assist city planners when reviewing alternative land development patterns at https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2217. The abstract is below.
Abstract
Although disaster-related economic losses continue to accelerate in the U.S., local hazard mitigation in many cases remains fragmented from mainstream forms of city planning. This paper demonstrates a methodological innovation for incorporating disaster resilience into community planning using an exploratory scenario planning framework. Specifically, it presents a method for pairing FEMA Hazus flood loss estimation software with Envision Tomorrow (ET), an open-source GIS-based scenario planning tool. Procedures for linking the tools include GIS geoprocessing to convert urban development scenarios into user-supplied individual building data suitable for analysis using the Hazus Flood model. To beta test its utility in practice, the integrated method was applied to a master-planned suburban development in Austin, Texas. Results illustrated how alternative development scenarios produced varying outcomes related to flood loss avoidance, reflecting the opportunity for comprehensive planning to enhance community resilience in addition to sustainability and quality of life. The paper highlights how the integrated use of tools can enable scenario planning processes that better address risk and uncertainty alongside other community development priorities.
Explore how this combination of software and data could help make your community more resilient in the ASCE Library: https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2217.
