Historical extreme events can provide valuable insight into coastal hazards; however, they cannot fully represent the range of potential future storm conditions. Focusing on the Texas coast, a new study, “A Fully Probabilistic and Response-Driven Approach for the Design of Coastal Storm Risk Management Systems: A Case Study of the Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay Project,” examines efforts to strengthen existing flood protection systems near Freeport and Port Arthur and build a new system in Orange County. The authors, Abigail L. Stehno, Jeffrey A. Melby, Shubhra Misra, T. Chris Massey, and Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, walk readers through the planning and design process, including how project teams evaluated alignment options, site conditions, property constraints, and long-term system performance to help reduce flood risks to communities and critical infrastructure.
The research provides a compelling example of how probabilistic hazard assessment can be integrated directly into infrastructure design. The team developed a joint probabilistic model of tropical cyclone characteristics, evaluated 195 simulated storms across multiple sea-level scenarios, and linked storm surge and wave modeling results to performance measures such as overtopping, overflow, and system response. Their approach uses risk-based performance criteria to inform crest elevations, alignment selection, and overall system resilience. The methodology offers a practical pathway for engineers designing levees, floodwalls, gates, and other coastal protection features in an era of increasing uncertainty and changing coastal conditions. Learn more about this study and the insight it provides for future coastal resilience projects in the Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering at https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/JWPED5.WWENG-2452. The abstract is below.
Abstract
A probabilistic coastal hazard and design analysis was completed to enhance existing Coastal Storm Risk Management (CSRM) systems in Port Arthur and Freeport, Texas (TX) and construct a new CSRM system in Orange County, TX. CSRM systems in this tropical cyclone (TC)-prone region comprise earthen levees, concrete floodwalls, pump stations, and gates. A joint probabilistic model of TC parameters was developed to span the practical probability space. A suite of 195 synthetic storms was effectively sampled to represent the coastal storm surge and wave-driven flood hazard in this region. Wind and pressure fields were developed using the planetary boundary layer model and modeled in the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CSTORM) coupled circulation, water level, and wave modeling system. Existing CSRM designs and elevations, as well as with-project designs, including new reaches to the system and updated elevations to existing structures, were modeled under three relative sea level condition scenarios. Model output was used to estimate wave, water level, and coastal-structure response hazard in a fully probabilistic, response-based framework. Combined overtopping and overflow hazards were used to identify optimal CSRM system component crest elevations associated with design exceedance limit states. CSRM alignments were evaluated using a flanking analysis.
Explore more on how modeling storms can inform and improve coastal storm risk management systems in the ASCE Library: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/JWPED5.WWENG-2452.
